Transport and Environment has raised concerns that the aviation industry’s projected growth in air travel could significantly undermine efforts to meet climate goals. According to the study, the number of air passengers is expected to more than double by 2050, leading to a surge in fuel demand and escalating emissions, which runs counter to the industry’s commitments to reduce its carbon footprint.
The aviation sector, which is responsible for approximately 2.5% of global carbon emissions, has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The industry aims to achieve this by using more sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can lower emissions significantly compared to traditional jet fuel. However, despite these efforts, the study highlights the challenges posed by limited SAF supply and its high cost, which is up to five times higher than that of conventional jet fuel. The growing demand for air travel is expected to drive fuel consumption up by 59% by 2050 from 2019 levels, even with the anticipated use of SAF and more efficient aircraft. Aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing are projecting significant growth in air travel, with more planes expected to take to the skies in the coming years. However, this increase in flight numbers will likely lead to greater emissions, thwarting the industry’s environmental ambitions.
Jo Dardenne, the aviation director at Transport and Environment, called for the European Union to take stronger measures to limit the sector’s growth, suggesting that policies such as restricting airport infrastructure expansion, curbing corporate travel, and imposing higher taxes on the industry could help curb emissions and manage its growth more sustainably. Despite these calls for action, the airline industry has consistently pushed back against proposals to limit growth, arguing that air travel is essential for economic development, global connectivity, and supporting the tourism industry. The industry’s reluctance to limit expansion raises further questions about how it can reconcile its growth targets with climate objectives.
As the aviation sector continues to push for expansion, environmental groups remain concerned that without more stringent measures, the industry’s future growth could lead to a significant increase in emissions, making it more difficult to achieve the ambitious climate goals set for 2050. The challenge remains to balance the sector’s economic importance with its environmental impact, especially as global demand for air travel continues to rise. In the meantime, efforts to scale up the production and use of SAF and invest in more fuel-efficient technologies will be key to the aviation industry’s ability to meet its climate targets. However, without stronger regulatory action to manage growth, these efforts may not be sufficient to mitigate the environmental impact of a rapidly expanding global aviation network.